Good Campaign Season Memory - Parker Gets on the Ballot

This was an exciting day - Annise Parker officially filed to be on the ballot for Mayor. I was there and liveblogged it in these three posts. They've created a short ad based on that event. I like it! Annise's speech was great - very inclusive. She told us she was ready to lead!

I got a campaign t-shirt that day that I am wearing right now. And, I met some of the campaign staff for the first time at that event. Watch it - it's very short. Go, fight, win, Team Parker!

Peter Brown's Amusing Email

I got this last night from Peter Brown's campaign. Right off the bat, it got a laugh out of me. Who would be dumb enough to give to Brown's campaign at this point when it's clear he's got an unlimited ability to self (wife) finance? Then the load of b.s. hit me in the face. I've corrected the email  - in blue - so that it makes more sense:

Friends,

On Tuesday, Peter told you about a new poll showing us in the lead. Hard work pays off, as does the ability to tap into his wife's unlimited fortune! But our opponents are getting desperate. For weeks, they’ve been launching angry vicious personal attacks. Fortunately, Peter has not done the same. That negative attack mailer Brad Olson claims Peter sent out where we made up stuff? DID NOT HAPPEN. That's the liberal media for you. Can't trust 'em. Oh, uh, unless you are a liberal voter, be assured Peter reads the New York Times! Ten times a day, even! Now they’re taking their misleading negative attacks to the next level. They are even trotting out Bill White who is calling Peter Brown a liar! Wow, our popular incumbent mayor thinks he  caught Peter lying about what happened in City Council. That is simply not true! He was asleep. We need your support and we need your time. Please contribute so we can respond with hay rides to the first 12 donors! 

www.PeterBrownforMayor.com/contribute

Then, sign up and help us get out the vote!

www.PeterBrownforMayor.com/gotv

We’re only five days from the election, we’re in the lead, and they’re willing to do whatever it takes, including putting up a tacky poll asking if Peter is utterly confused or deliberately deceptive. But momentum continues to build behind our campaign to make Houston even better. In the last few days we’ve received additional endorsements, including the Mexican American Sheriff’s Organization and the Houston Education Support Personnel Union. And,when we don't think we have enough endorsements, we make them up, like we did with that one black minister. So, never fear, we will always have a long supporter list! Will you join them in supporting our campaign to make Houston even better?

www.PeterBrownforMayor.com/contribute. Even better, contribute to Peter, a liberal Democrat, then do what he does and contribute to a Republican in the same race - our suggestion . . . Roy Morales!

Peter’s opponents see the writing on the wall. They know they can’t match his spry, 72-year old vision, his experience, or record of results, especially the results he makes up. So they’re trying to mislead voters. Let me just stop right here and say again, Peter Brown is not misleading voters! Bill White is a big, fat liar.  But we know it’s not going to work, thanks to supporters like you, and all the other supporters we've made up. We’ve worked hard, we’ve worked smart, and we've tapped into Peter's wife's vast fortune. Now, let’s finish strong.

Thanks for everything,
Lucinda

Campaign Manager
Peter Brown for Mayor


P.S. We need volunteers for this final get out the vote weekend. Have a few hours? Help make Houston even better. Bring your family, bring your friends, and your blueprints. Sign up now!www.PeterBrownforMayor.com/gotv or 281-888-7777 


UPDATE: I see Bay Area Houston had a similar reaction to this email. 

I'm Upping My Estimate of Roy's Vote Share

What was I thinking??!! I totally forgot about the biker vote for Roy Morales.



When I think of Roy Morales, I definitely think: Hooter-ish girl, bikers, the long open road . . . Coincidentally, those are the same things that are top of mind when I think "Mayor of Houston."

Forget my prediction of mid-teens. I think if we can make this ad go viral, he's in the runoff for sure.

Here's a radio ad for Morales. Has anyone heard it? In it he promises to reduce your taxes so they city will have plenty of money to put more police on the street and make it light up at night like Las Vegas so the space shuttle can see us. Wheeeeee!

Early Voting Totals Through Thursday by Location

I've got early vote totals from Day 1 through Day 11. All we have left is today to vote early! If you need to find early voting locations, there is a map and addresses at harrisvotes.com. If you are waiting until Election Day (Tuesday, 7 AM to 7 PM), you'll find your polling location there, as well. The West Gray location (Metropolitan Multiservice Center) has led the voting every day.

Also, note that these totals represent all of Harris County. The City of Houston votes probably account for about 75% of the total.

Early Voting Location	Area of Town	CUM	%
Metropolitan MSC	Neartown	5696	19.18%
Trini Mendenhall Sosa Center	Spring Branch	4127	13.90%
Bayland Park Comm Center	SW Houston	3337	11.24%
Tracy Gee Comm Center	Near West Side	2588	8.71%
Freeman Library, Clear Lake	Clear Lake	2531	8.52%
Fiesta Mart	Astrodome Area	2381	8.02%
Palm Center	South Loop	2232	7.52%
Courtyard by Marriott	Far W. Houston	2171	7.31%
Sunnyside MSC	Sunnyside	2133	7.18%
Henington-Alief Library	Alief	2123	7.15%
Humble ISD Instructional Bldg	Kingwood	2047	6.89%
Northeast MSC	Northeast	1866	6.28%
Barbara Bush Library, Spring	Cypress Creek	1779	5.99%
Acres Home MSC	Acres Home	1661	5.59%
Lac Hong Square	West Houston	1632	5.50%
The Power Center	S. Houston Area	1325	4.46%
Main - Downtown	Main Office	1189	4.00%
Moody Park Comm Center	North Loop	1165	3.92%
Cypress Top Park	Cypress	1152	3.88%
Bear Creek Comm Center	Bear Creek	1066	3.59%
North Channel Branch Library	Wallisville Rd	1017	3.42%
Jersey City, City Hall	Jersey Village	892	3.00%
Octavia Fields Branch Library	Humble	833	2.80%
East Harris Activity Center, Pasadena	Pasadena	825	2.78%
Franz Road Storefront, Katy	Far West/Katy	768	2.59%
Julia C. Hester House	Kashmere	726	2.44%
HCCS Southeast College	Southeast Houston	718	2.42%
IBEW Hall #66, Pasadena	Hobby Area	686	2.31%
Tomball Public Works Bldg	Tomball	558	1.88%
Ripley House	Downtown - East	514	1.73%
Lonestar College	Northwest	483	1.63%
Ponderosa Fire Station #1	Far North	448	1.51%
Baytown Community Center	Baytown	400	1.35%
George Bush Park	Far West	386	1.30%
Hardy Senior Center	North	381	1.28%
Crosby ISD Admin Bldg	Crosby	230	0.77%
Galena Park Library	Galena Park	226	0.76%

Through Thursday, 10/29/09:
Total mail ballots mailed:  20,987
Total mail ballots returned: 7200
Total in-person voting:  54,296

Harris County: Here's A Missive From Your County Clerk

Republican Beverly Kaufman, Harris County Clerk just sent out the following. It's hard not to hear her say "Vote for Gene Locke" subliminally in every sentence (she sent out a robocall endorsing him, to the dismay of voters who think the person in charge of elections should not endorse in elections under which she has jurisdiction). You can still vote early through tomorrow. To find out more about early voting and Election Day polling locations, go to harrisvotes.com.

Voting infrastructure set for Election Day, Tuesday, Nov. 3^rd

Houston, TX-Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman announced today that 728 polls will be open and ready to receive registered voters on Tuesday, Nov. 3, General Election Day, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. According to the Clerk, 6,600 pieces of election equipment will be allocated throughout the county and almost 5,000 election clerks will be working during this election.

“The election infrastructure is set. I strongly encourage registered voters who did not vote during the early voting period to consider doing so on Election Day”, said Clerk Kaufman, the chief elections officer of the County. “This election cycle may not be as captivating as a national election, but it may be more important.”

During the upcoming Harris County Joint Election 120 individuals will be vying for 40 positions in political subdivisions within County. Of those, sixty-two are candidates for City of Houston public office, including the positions of mayor, controller and city council. Overall, there a total of 60 contests on the ballot. Of those, 20 are propositions. The most prominent contests are the State constitutional amendments.

“Voters should be aware that anytime an election includes statewide propositions those items will appear first on the ballot. In this instance, it means that all voters, whether they reside in Houston or other political subdivisions, will see the 11 state propositions at the top of their ballot before they see anything else.”

The County Clerk reminded voters that the law provides that a voter can ONLY vote in contests offered by a political subdivision which is connected to the physical address in which a voter is registered to vote. To find out which political subdivisions are connected to a voter’s address, a voter may visit the following link on the Tax Assessor Collectors website: http://www.hctax.net/ASP/streetguide/frameset.asp. An individual may also check voter registration status with the Tax office by calling 713. 368. 2200 or by visitinghttp://www.tax.co.harris.tx.us/Voter/voter.aspx.

The Clerk also reminded voters to know where they are going to vote before leaving their homes on Election Day. The law provides that on Election Day a voter must vote at the poll where the precinct the voter is registered to vote is voting.  For voter identification purposes at the poll, registered voters are urged to take at least ONE of the following acceptable documents:

1.        A voter registration certificate;

2.        A driver's license or personal identification card issued to the voter by the Department of Public Safety or a similar document issued to the voter by an agency of another state, regardless of whether the license or card has expired;

3.        A form of identification containing the voter’s photograph that establishes the voter’s identity;

4.        A birth certificate or other document confirming birth that is admissible in a court of law and establishes the voter’s identity;

5.        United States citizenship papers issued to the voter;

6.        A United States passport issued to the voter;

7.        Official mail addressed to the voter, by name, from a governmental entity;

8.        A copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document that shows the voter’s name and address.

           

For more Election Day information voters may visit www.harrisvotes.com and click ‘Find Election Day Poll and View Voter Specific Ballot.’ Voters may also call 713.755.6965, Harris County’s automated election information line.

Annise Parker Responds to Peter Brown's False Claims

Peter Brown sent out a misleading mail piece to voters this week (see it here). Annise Parker has responded. Mayor White has responded as well. Click on the jpegs below to see Parker refute Brown's allegations - and in some cases call out Brown for hypocrisy.

Brown is getting a reputation for making claims that just aren't true. Here's a short list:

1. CLAIM: Peter Brown says Houstonians for Responsible Growth supports the Ashby High Rise. FALSE. 

2. CLAIM: Peter Brown took credit for a city recycling program. FALSE.

3. CLAIM: Peter Brown lists Rev. John Bowie as a supporter on a flyer. FALSE.

4. CLAIM: Peter Brown accurately lists his supporters on his website. FALSE.

Do you have more examples? Leave them in the comments.

How Much Has C.O. Bradford Cost Taxpayers?

Noel Freeman's new mailer hits homes today. A friend told me that Bradford was overheard telling another candidate at Discovery Green recently that "no one cares about the crime lab." I wonder if voters will start to care once they realize the city is still paying legal bills to defend the George Rodriguez case, Rodriguez spent 17 years in jail after being falsely convicted because of a mistake at the scandal plagued Houston Crime Lab, a scandal in which Bradford was a major player.

Bradford and Freeman are vying for the At-Large 4 council seat, currently held by Controller candidate Ron Green.  There is third candidate, Curtis Garmon, but the race is really between Freeman and Bradford. I've endorsed Freeman in this race and I explained why in this blog post.

The crime lab debacle hounded Bradford during his tenure as Houston police chief, eventually leading to his retirement (bolded emphasis mine):

Houston Police Chief C.O. Bradford, dogged by a series of embarrassments for himself and his department over the past year, announced today he would resign in September after 24 years with HPD.
[---]
The decision follows a year in which one major problem after another has plagued the Police Department. 

They include scandal and scientific problems at the crime lab, a mishandled parking lot raid that ended in the arrests of many innocent bystanders, Bradford's trial on perjury charges, which a judge eventually dismissed, and the recent arrests of five veteran officers accused of shaking down cantina owners for protection money and warning them of upcoming raids for prostitution and other illegal activities.

Just last month, Bradford said he would not step down in the face of intense criticism about his supervision of the crime lab and allegations that he knew of problems there four years ago.
Council members and police union officials called for his resignation after the Houston Chronicle reported that crime lab employees had sent him a memo in September 1999 describing the lab as "a total disaster." Bradford deflected criticism, saying he never saw the memo and was unaware of problems at the lab until he ordered it shut down late last year.

The Chronicle makes the point here that needs to be made. Bradford ignored the crime lab problems (read about some of those in this New York Times article)- problems he was made aware of by crime lab employees - causing council members to call for his resignation. Yet, now he wants to be a city council member.

I have it on good authority that this mailer went to more than a respectable number of voters. I wish the Chronicle would do its job and inform voters about this race. The total lack of coverage has me concerned that voters won't be informed and will vote for a name they recognize, not realizing they recognize it for the wrong reasons - and that they have such a great alternative with Noel Freeman, someone who has experience at the City and can step right in and be effective right away. Fortunately, you can go to the Chronicle's search engine and type in "Bradford crime lab" and you'll have access to all the s

I hope this blog coverage of this race helps in some way get the word out about the difference between these two candidates. I strongly urge you to vote for Noel Freeman in At-Large 4 and to recommend him to your friends.

Peter Brown: Utterly Confused or Deliberately Deceptive?

You gotta love it when a negative attack is so easily disputed. Even more delicious are those few, rare moments when Mayor White deems it's necessary to get involved in the race to replace him as mayor. 


Brown sent out a mail piece that attacked both Annise Parker and Gene Locke. I heard it was sent to women Republican voters. You can see it right here. The Chron has Mayor White's response:

The mail piece accuses City Controller Annise Parker of missing reporting deadlines for annual audits and “significant deficiencies” that left “Houston's financial security at risk.” 

“The city has not been put at financial risk,” White said in an e-mail released by Parker's campaign. The mayor, who is term-limited and has not endorsed a candidate, added that the delays in the audits were caused by the implementation of new financial accounting software. 

“The Controller is not responsible for these delays and the reasons for delays were discussed openly at City Council meetings with some frequency,” the e-mail says. 

------ 

“Council Member Brown should correct the record and withdraw his misleading accusations,” Parker said in a statement. “Brown's false claim demonstrates his utter confusion at best or a deliberate deception at worst.”

If you follow Mayor White during election seasons, you know he doesn't get involved, so for him to jump in refute Brown's accusation in such a strong way, and call out him for falsely representing what went on in plain view in Council meetings, is not insignificant. 


I hope the Chronicle's coverage of this gets seen by the people who got the deceptive mailer. Going negative when you can back up your claims is fair game. But, when you out right lie, it's just plain wrong. 


I think Parker has the right question for Brown: Is he utterly confused or is he being deliberately deceptive? Vote in the poll to the right. 

Predicting Roy Morales' Vote Share

Get two or more political people together these days and one of the inevitable questions is, "How much of the vote will Roy Morales get?" I've heard everything from single digits to 20-22%.

Morales is the only Republican in the race for Mayor. I thought he did a fairly good job in the last televised debate, even landing some well placed hits on Peter Brown. Sure, he comes off as a nutcase and not a serious candidates to just about anyone who is paying attention, and I am certainly not a fan. Here's an example of vintage Roy:

“I want to make sure that we light up downtown so when the space shuttle or the International Space Station is overhead, they won't see Las Vegas, they'll see Houston, Texas,” said Morales, who also is the only candidate to have invited the Disney Corp. to evaluate Houston as a possible site for a theme park.

But, let's take a look at Morales' past electoral failures - and one success:

In November 2005, Morales was one of a 3-person field for Houston City Council in At-Large 1. The total number of votes was 152,440. Peter Brown got 51% of the votes - 77,793. Roy Morales got 48,644 votes - 32%. Griff Griffin got 26,003 votes - 17%. Morales came very close to being in a runoff with Peter Brown. This was when Morales was involved in his Minutemen activity (video here). He wasn't a "serious" candidate in 2005, but he got nearly 49,000 votes. This should give people pause for thought.

In 2006, Morales ran unopposed for a Harris County Department of Education board seat. He got 41,231 votes, with a 70% undervote. Morales currently holds this board seat.

In May 2007, Morales was part of an eleven candidate field in the At-Large 3 Special Election. He got in the runoff with Melissa Noriega by capturing 19% of the vote in a low turnout election with 6349 votes. In the June runoff, Noriega won with 56% of the vote (13892) to Morales' 44% (11062). He challenged Noriega again for At-Large 3 in the November general election. This time he got 34% of the vote - 34,758 votes.

What does this data say to me? Morales is going to get his share. A certain percentage of Republican voters are going to pull the lever for the Republican, regardless of the viability or qualifications of the Republican candidate. Morales' right wing rhetoric appeals to some voters who just can't wait and vote for the guy who has zero chance of being Mayor of Houston, but says the magic words they want to hear on immigrants, as well as cutting taxes and lighting up Houston so the space shuttle can see us. Certainly, there are plenty of good government Republicans who vote in city elections and ignore Party labels, and vote for the best candidate - someone who is qualified and reasonable. We've seen both scenarios play out year after year, city election after city election.

How much will Morales get next Thursday? My prediction is somewhere between 10% and 20% and I'm leaning towards a mid-point, but north of 15% wouldn't surprise me. I would be concerned about a candidate whose plan to win - or plan to get in the runoff - sells Morales too short and is planning on him being in the single digits. What is your prediction? I'd love to hear it in the comments!

UPDATE: Mikey P left a comment reminding me that Morales' Hispanic surname gets an automatic vote from some Hispanic voters - whether they know anything about him or not. Forgot all about that factor!

Pam Holm's Ethics Problem

The campaign finance rules boil down to something pretty basic: transparently report the donations you get and the expenditures you make. Don't try and hide either one in this day and time, because reports are on the internet and are easily searchable by ethics watchdogs. A big deal will be made by bloggers and complaints with the Texas Ethics Commission will be filed.

Kuff has turned into an ethics watchdog and found something amiss in Pam Holm's 8-day out report, which is kind of ironic since her TV ad claims she's going to be the watchdog at City Hall in the controller's office. She's even got a barking dog in her commercial to make the point. You can watch that ad here.

It's this ad that is going to cause an ethics complaint to be filed against her. She's clearly running this ad. I asked my friends for confirmation - "have you seen an actual Pam Holm commercial on TV?" Oh, yeah, lots of responses - yes, we've seen it on CNN, etc.

So, where is the buy in her 8-day out report? It's not there. It's just not. There should be an expenditure for well over $100,000, with something like "ad buy" as the explanation, and it's just not there. It's not in her 30-day out report, either.

How can we trust someone who can't - or won't - be accurate, transparent and ethical in her campaign account reporting to be accurate, transparent and ethical with the City's accounting?

I'm not buying that Pam Holm has the experience or the skill set to be Houston's controller. She wants to be the City's watchdog, yet she's got ethics watchdogs barking at her and biting her where it hurts.

UPDATE: I have a copy of Holm's Comcast ad buy - which is NOT on her 8-day out reports:

UPDATE 2: Pam Holm's campaign manager, Bethel Nathan, left an unpleasant comment which I did not publish. The gist of it was "how ridiculous are you for assuming we spent $100,000 on the ad buy when we only spent $25,000!" Uh, Bethel. I think this speaks volumes about Holm's ability to budget efficiently. I was actually giving you the benefit of the doubt that your fundraising had been lousy. I would have assumed a much larger buy, but I lowballed it. Instead, we learn you spent $10,000 on ad production and $25,000 to put it on the air? The next time I do campaign training, I'll whip this out as a "what not to do" example. Bethel assures me they've done a do over - after we caught the controller candidate incorrectly filling out her campaign finance report. I wonder if they left anything else off that we haven't spotted?

Peter Brown: Too Liberal or Too Cozy with Republicans?

What a conundrum. I hear all the time that the conventional wisdom is that mayoral candidate Peter Brown is too liberal. Peter Brown: White, Liberal Elite is that headline. Cozying up with Obama (photo evidence!) Probably windsurfed in his younger days. We have donation history of his liberal elitism:

BROWN, PETERHOUSTON,TX 77005 CITY OF HOUSTON/COUNCIL MEMBER 3/16/07 $4,600 Obama, Barack (D)

Brown, Peter Houston,TX 77005 City of Houston 7/31/08 $1,899 Obama, Barack (D)

BROWN, PETER HOUSTON,TX 77005 CITY OF HOUSTON/COUNCIL MEMBER 3/16/07 $-2,300 Obama, Barack (D)

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77005 CIVIC DESIGN ASSOC/ARCHITECT 5/15/07 $2,500 Democratic Congressional Campaign Cmte (D)

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77005 CIVIC DESIGN ASSOCIATES/ARCHITECT/C 6/30/08 $2,300 Noriega, Rick (D)

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77005 SELF-EMPLOYED/ARCHITECT 2/26/07 $1,500 Emanuel, Rahm (D)

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77005 HOUSTON CITY COUNCIL/CITY COUNCIL M 2/29/08 $1,000 Democratic Congressional Campaign Cmte (D)

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77005 CITY OF HOUSTON/HOUSTON CITY COUNCI 5/19/08 $1,000 Moveon.org

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77005 CITY OF HOUSTON/HOUSTON CITY COUNCI 2/3/08 $1,000 Moveon.org

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77098 CITY OF HOUSTON/COUNCILMAN 6/29/07 $500 Lampson, Nick (D)

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77005 CITY OF HOUSTON/ARCHITECT CITY COUN 1/15/07 $500 Moveon.org

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77098 CITY OF HOUSTON/COUNCILMAN 6/29/07 $500 Lampson, Nick (D)

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77002 HOUSTON CITY/COUNCILMAN 12/7/07 $500 Clinton, Hillary (D)

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77002 3/28/07 $500 Clinton, Hillary (D)

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77005 CITY COUNCIL OF HOUSTON/CITY COUNCI 10/29/07 $250 Franken, Al (D)

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77005 CITY COUNCIL OF HOUSTON/CITY COUNCI 8/21/07 $250 Franken, Al (D)

Brown, Peter H Mr Houston,TX 77005 City of Houston/Council Member 8/14/08 $5,400 DNC Services Corp (D)

Brown, Peter H Mr Houston,TX 77005 City of Houston/Council Member 7/31/08 $2,700 DNC Services Corp (D)

BROWN, PETER H MR HOUSTON,TX 77005 CITY OF HOUSTON/HOUSTON CITY COUNCI 4/16/08 $2,000 DNC Services Corp (D)

BROWN, PETER H MR HOUSTON,TX 77098 PETER H BROWN & ASSOC./ARCHITECT 3/23/07 $1,000 EMILY's List

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77098 SELF/ARCHITECT 10/28/08 $5,000 Democratic Party of Harris County (D)

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77098 SELF/ARCHITECT 10/17/07 $2,500 Democratic Party of Harris County (D)

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77098 SELF/ARCHITECT 5/20/08 $2,500 Democratic Party of Harris County (D)

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77098 CITY OF HOUSTON/COUNCILMAN 7/8/08 $2,000 Lampson, Nick (D)

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77098 CITY OF HOUSTON/COUNCILMAN 3/27/08 $1,500 Skelly, Michael Peter (D)

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77005 SELF-EMPLOYED/ARCHITECHT 10/24/08 $1,500 HILLPAC (D)

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77098 SELF/ARCHITECT 3/30/07 $1,000 Democratic Party of Harris County (D)

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77098 CITY OF HOUSTON/COUNCILMAN 5/30/08 $507 Skelly, Michael Peter (D)

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77098 CITY OF HOUSTON/COUNCILMAN 4/15/08 $250 Skelly, Michael Peter (D)

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77098 SELF/ARCHITECT 11/6/07 $225 Democratic Party of Harris County (D)

BROWN, PETER HOYT HOUSTON,TX 77098 SELF/ARCHITECT 7/7/08 $200 Democratic Party of Harris County (D)

The other headline: Peter Brown Makes Republican Rounds. Witness the egregious Karl Rove event appearance and donation to Republican State Rep. John Davis.

And, then there's the photo evidence of his admiration of McCain, as well as his donation history to Republican presidential candidates (the guy has money and he spreads it around):

BROWN, PETER H HOUSTON,TX 77005 3/7/08 $-200 Giuliani, Rudolph W (R)

BROWN, PETER H MR HOUSTON,TX 77005 HOUSTON CITY COUNCIL/COUNCIL MEMBER 3/28/07 $1,000 Giuliani, Rudolph W (R)

BROWN, PETER H MR HOUSTON,TX 77005 HOUSTON CITY COUNCIL/COUNCIL MEMBER 5/22/07 $1,000 Giuliani, Rudolph W (R)

BROWN, PETER H MR HOUSTON,TX 77005 HOUSTON CITY COUNCIL/COUNCIL MEMBER 9/12/07 $500 Giuliani, Rudolph W (R)

BROWN, PETER H MR HOUSTON,TX 77005 SELF-EMPLOYED/ARCHITECT 3/31/07 $500 McCain, John (R)

BROWN, PETER H MR HOUSTON,TX 77005 SELF-EMPLOYED/ARCHITECT 3/29/07 $500 Romney, Mitt (R)

BROWN, PETER H MR HOUSTON,TX 77005 HOUSTON CITY COUNCIL/COUNCIL MEMBER 9/12/07 $200 Giuliani, Rudolph W (R)

BROWN, PETER H MR HOUSTON,TX 77005 HOUSTON CITY COUNCIL/COUNCIL MEMBER 9/12/07 $-200 Giuliani, Rudolph W (R)

What do you think? Peter Brown too liberal? Too Republican? Or, is this why he's having success in the polls - voters don't know what to think other than he has a blueprint for a better Houston?

Hat tip to Miya Shay for the great photo!

UPDATE: Hue and cry from my liberal friends to include Peter Brown's donation to Macaca (George Allen). You'll find it at this link, along with a whole new list of who he donated to in 2005. Sheila Jackson Lee! Kay Bailey Hutchinson! John Kerry!

UPDATE 2: Oh, my goodness! A commenter left this link. Click on it and go to the list on the right and click on Matters to Be Presented By Council at the bottom. Once that video gets going, scroll to 33:12 and watch through 31:40 (or else you'll miss Mayor White's, "who wants to kiss a pig" remark). It's hilarious! Council Member Brown brings these poor dressed up staff members to a Council meeting.

Locke, Show Us Your Internal Poll!

Annise Parker is using Lake Research for her polling - a very reputable, national Democratic polling firm. We got a look at Parker's latest internal poll last night which showed this:

Annise Parker: 27%

Peter Brown: 21%

Gene Locke: 17%

Roy Morales: 11%

Undecided: 24%

And, we learned that this poll was conducted by talking to Houston voters with City voting history - something that was apparently missing in the Houston Chronicle/Zogby poll and in last night's KHOU poll, as well. In other words, instead of calling registered voters and asking them if they were likely to vote in the mayoral race, the starting point was with registered voters who had history of voting in City of Houston elections.

Looking through Gene Locke's campaign finance reports, it's clear he's using Fairbank, Maslin, Maulin & Associates for his polling. Each of Locke's reports shows he paid for a poll:

3/19/2009 Fairbanks, Maslin, Maulin & Assoc., Inc. $30,000

9/11/2009 Fairbanks, Maslin, Maulin & Assoc, Inc. $25,000

10/21/2009 Fairbanks, Maslin, Maulin & Assoc, Inc. $23,500

I thought Team Parker had a good strategy last night - get their poll showing her ahead with likely City voters before the KHOU poll was released. Team Locke is not stupid - if their 10/21 poll had good news, you have to believe they would have released theirs, as well.

One of the main reasons for doing a poll is not just to figure out where your horse is in the horse race, but to hone your messaging to voters. What messages about you poll strong with voters? You'll use those on TV, in mail and at forums and debates. What messages about your opponents can you use to tear them down so that voters abandon them and swing your way?

What messages have we heard from Locke lately? All I'm hearing is a tear down of Peter Brown. Locke is pounding Brown on buying the election, so I think it's fair to say that's where Locke's poll shows Brown as vulnerable. I'm guessing Locke's internal polling also shows him in 3rd place - the same as the Chron poll, the Parker internal poll and the KHOU poll. I'm also guessing it shows Parker either in first place or it shows her as less vulnerable to opposition messages as it does Brown.

If you have any thoughts on this, leave them in the comments. What else have we heard from Locke lately that is probably informed by his Oct. 21 poll results?

UPDATE: Thinking about polling reminds me of a Locke internal memo a friend said he saw that had a 50%+1 strategy for winning. I wasn't sure if that was the strategy for winning outright on Nov. 3rd or if it's the runoff strategy. Either way, I have to think half of that - 25% -  was by getting 80-90% of the African American vote. What was the plan for putting together the remainder of the 50%? 25% from Republicans and 25% from Hispanic and White Democrats? Anyone have any thoughts on this? His fundraising continues to be successful - who do you think continues to buy into this strategy? I'd be surprised if he's able to make the case for that much of the African American vote right now.

Locke's Police Mailer

From the Houston Police Officer's Union: Color me surprised. I thought the messaging would be stronger, and certainly would have expected the photo to be more flattering. My goodness, that photo is conveying something I don't think they intended to convey. Someone ban that from future campaign purposes. For what it's worth, those handcuffs and that kevlar vest just about scare me to death for some reason.

City of Houston Votes in Fort Bend County to Date - and Historically

I've had Gene Locke supporters on Facebook arguing with me about how the City of Houston votes in Fort Bend County are their secret weapon for winning because the 23 City of Houston precincts in Fort Bend County are supposed to deliver a large African American vote and, of course, you know, obviously (or not so obviously) for him. The Fort Bend precincts are in City Council District D - Missouri City - represented by Wanda Adams. These same supporters think: a) African American voters were under polled in the Chronicle poll and b) Fort Bend voters were under polled in the Chronicle poll.

Here's what we know: only 238 people have voted in person in the Fort Bend City of Houston elections Monday - Sunday.

Unless something awakes them from their slumber, I wouldn't expect the Fort Bend voters to save anyone like they did Lee Brown in his 2001 runoff against Orlando Sanchez. Then again, I don't know. Perhaps in seasons past, very few Ft. Bend voters had voted this early and the big rush will come at the end of this week and on Election Day. I'm not going to take the time to analyze early vote turnout year by year, day by day in Fort Bend County. But, below is a historical look at how the Fort Bend votes have contributed to the final vote count in the Houston mayoral elections (vote totals and percentages are for the mayoral race only);

2001 General - 6 person race

Total City of Houston: 288,283 (Brown 43%, Sanchez 40%, Chris Bell 16%))

Fort Bend portion: 5755 (Lee Brown 90%)

2001 Runoff - Lee Brown vs. Orlando Sanchez

Total City of Houston: 321,030 (Brown 165,866 52%; Sanchez 155,164 48%)

Fort Bend portion: 7602 (Brown 6983 92%)

2003 General - 9 person race

Total City of Houston: 300,768 (White 38%, Sanchez 33%, Turner 29%)

Fort Bend portion: 6734 (Sylvester Turner 5011 74%)

2003 Runoff - Bill White vs. Orlando Sanchez

Total City of Houston: 218,448 (White 63%, Sanchez 37%)

Fort Bend portion: 3882 (White 3434 88%)

2005 General - 5 person race

Total City of Houston: 181,842 (White 91%)

Fort Bend portion: 3171 (White 89%)

2007 General - 3 person race

Total City of Houston: 117,431 (White 86%)

Fort Bend portion: 2293 (White 33%)

In a low turnout election, with the vote among Parker, Brown and Locke expected to be close, certainly 7000 plus or minus Fort Bend voters matter. I'd be curious to know of any polling which shows how big a percentage Locke is expected to get in Fort Bend - or even how much they are counting on. Historically, Fort Bend voters will vote for the black man in City of Houston elections in the 74% to 92% range (see Brown and Turner in the data above.) If Locke could get 90% of 7000 Fort Bend votes - 6300 votes - in the November general election, that certainly would be helpful to him.

Anyone else have an opinion? Please leave a comment!

Early Voting Through Sunday

Turnout in the Harris County elections was up only 10% on Saturday over Friday, with a low turnout on Sunday. For day by day data on turnout by location, plus the percent each location is contributing to total turnout to date, click here.

How does early voting this year compare with recent years? Here's a 2003-2009 comparison - the odd years when we have municipal elections. EVPA stands for Early Voting by Personal Appearance. The mail column shows mail ballots returned to the Harris County Clerk to date. Total to date is EVPA+Mail. Totals are for seven days of early voting - Monday-Sunday:

Year	EVPA	Mail	Total to date
2003	26752	3558	30310
2005	23778	1715	25493
2007	16092	3555	19647
2009	26662	3804	30466

Keep in mind, these numbers are for the entirety of Harris County. Take about 75% of that and you have an estimate of the City of Houston numbers.

What was the final turnout in 03, o5 and o7 for Harris County? The second, third and fourth columns are the totals for early voting in person, early voting by mail, final early vote. The fifth column is the final total, including early voting plus Election Day.

Year	Final EVPA	Final EV Mail	Total EV	Final Total
2003	75285	17583	92868	374549
2005	72361	10703	83064	332154
2007	43420	6844	50264	193945

Kuff has more on weekend voting. You can see that early voting to date actually tracks a little higher than in 2003, the last open mayoral election. I'll be very surprised if the 2009 final total is anywhere near the 2003 total, but who knows.

There are eight days until Election Day, which is plenty of time for dirty tricks (dirty trickster Republican consultant Blakemore is helping Locke), more about who is buying the election (Locke with his insider lobbyist donations or Brown with his self-financed race), and dividing up the black vote even further. Perhaps even Roy Morales will will draw the fed up Republican vote his way. In a head to head with Melissa Noriega in Nov. 2007, he got 34% of the vote. That's 34% hardcore R who have to go somewhere by Nov. 3rd - or stay home.

Roy Morales TV Ad

On the heels of the secret announcement that the Harris County Republican Party and one blogger have endorsed him, Roy Morales releases a TV ad. Here's what you'll learn from the ad:

If you don't like Obama, Morales is your guy.

The city is about to go bankrupt (really??)

He's not a tax and spend liberal.

He's not a friend to Metro.

And he wont cut your taxes.

That's right, he wont cut your taxes and he wont use an apostrophe.

I think the production value is worth about $0, but I'll be curious to see what he reports for this. My guess is an in-kind of around $1000.

Eight day out campaign finance reports go online today - find them at this link.

Parker Shoots Fish in a Barrel!

Good grief, I'm sorry I missed the Majic 102.1 radio show this morning where it seems that Parker was shooting fish in a barrel, with the two easily and frequently targeted fish being Gene Locke and Peter Brown. Those two are giving Parker control of big gun in the mayoral race. Fortunately, Brad Olson of the Houston Chronicle recapped it for us. (Click here for his full report.)

Here's one highlight (my commentary in parenthesis):

The most direct assaults revolved around the accusation that Brown is attempting to buy the African-American vote, allegations that are expected to ratchet up today as Brown and Locke plan dueling press conferences on the subject this afternoon.

Locke brought up an example published in today's Houston Chronicle in which Brown gave Rev. John Bowie a $150 contribution and later claimed him as a supporter on flyers distributed at his True Light Missionary Baptist Church the next week.

[---]

He (Brown) said he and his wife have long supported churches and their efforts to improve conditions among African-Americans, but it was “not to get any votes.”

“It's an insult to the black community to say they are for sale,” he said. “It's an insult to the clergy leaders in this city to say that they're for sale.”

(Uh oh. Rick Casey has the story about how Brown attended Bowie's church, gave a donation of $150, which is customary - candidates visiting churches almost always make a donation of around $100 to the church - and then listed Bowie as a supporter on a campaign flyer. Big no-no. Particularly with Bowie being co-chair of TMO. Not cool.)

Parker hammered Locke on not saying he would replace the HPD chief or the chair of the Metro Board. Locke has received the endorsement of HPOU and has been the general counsel for Metro, and has received many thousands of dollars in campaign donations from Metro board members. Locke basically replied back with "unbossed and unbought," a la Jew Don Boney.

My admiration for Parker increases when she kicks butt with stuff like the following. She tells it exactly like it is about her opponents' promises that require spending money that is just not there:

“Not being someone of immense personal wealth myself who is trying to buy an election ... I can't just say we're just going to throw money at folks by offering financial assistance,” she said, noting the city's growing fiscal challenges. “We don't have any extra money and we can't blithely say we're going to offer financial assistance to companies that need help.”

I thought of "shooting fish in a barrel" after reading this exchange. Locke's response about catching fish was funny (albeit inaccurate according the Chronicle poll) until he started bringing too many fish species into the conversation:

“Mr. Locke is fishing in the dark,” Brown said.

“Yeah, but I'm catching fish,” Locke replied.

Brown repeated the assertion, after which Locke said he was catching “catfish over here,” perch and even flounder.

“No, that's over here,” Parker said.

This particular fishing contest lasts nine more days, and we'll probably have about five more weeks of fishing after that (runoff). Click here to find out where and when to vote!

More Voter Suppression News? Or, a Mistake?

I just heard from Council Member Melissa. She and her husband, Rick Noriega, went to vote at Ripley House in the East End this morning. To her surprise, she was told she would not be allowed to vote because she had requested a mail ballot. But, she had not requested a mail ballot. Why not allowed to vote? Once a mail ballot is requested, it's as if you have already voted. You cannot vote in person.

She was there an hour, and after a call to the Republican County Clerk Beverly Kaufman's office, the hold was lifted, and she was allowed to vote.

This incidence gives me cause for concern. I've learned that both Stephen Hotze and Alan Blakemore recently got involved in Gene Locke's campaign for Mayor. Hotze runs a mail ballot program where he sends Republican voters over 65 a piece of mail with inflammatory right wing messages, a sample ballot that is already filled out - and a tear off portion to mail to Beverly Kaufman requesting a mail ballot. His PAC that runs the program - Conservative Republicans of Harris County - is a client of Blakemore. Remember, County Clerk Kaufman has endorsed Gene Locke and did this robo dial for him.

I'm thinking back to the Ed Johnson incident. Check out this from Lonestar Project - Conservative Republicans of Harris County is a client of Johnson's firm - Campaign Data Systems. Johnson was employed in the voter registration department of Harris County, while providing voter data merged with driver's license and other data to Republican clients through his firm. It took me about two seconds to peruse that list and realize Johnson's clients were also Blakemore's clients.

Is what happened here a simple goof, or is there something else going on? We have 10 days until Election Day - plenty of time for dirty tricks.

Note: These questions are mine, not the council member's. Please exercise your right to vote and vote provisionally, if that is your only option. Main message here is: be persistent!

Is Locke Trying to Suppress Votes?

Or is his campaign so chaotic they simply don't know what they are doing? I'm referring to the text message that went out from the Locke campaign yesterday morning:

TODAY is the final day for early voting. Gene launches second ad: http://bit.ly/3tuOJM Join us for Debate Watch Party Saturday! http://bit.ly/W4jhp

Misleading voters is not really an "oops" you can get away with. A couple of informed politicos contacted me, and reminded me that the Department of Justice gets involved in instances of campaigns giving out wrong information about the date of an election. It's a Voting Rights Act offense. There are numerous incidents of these sorts of dirty tricks in elections (google is your friend, here).

Of course, Democrat Locke is endorsed by Republican Harris County Clerk Beverly Kaufman who is on record as being against the Voting Rights Act. Not only did Kaufman endorse Locke, she did a robo call for him (listen to that at this link). Not only that, she runs the elections in Harris County! I got a nice email from her yesterday (press release) telling me lots of good info about this election. All I could hear in my head as I read the email, was "and vote for Gene Locke for Mayor."

Why would Locke want to suppress votes? No idea. But, I do know when I've passed this sort of stuff off as "oh, a simple mistake" in the past, I've been wrong. So, I've learned to ask the question about more nefarious motives.

So, I ask again: Is Locke trying to suppress votes or is his campaign clueless?

You can vote in the poll at the right.

Early Voting Continues, Except For Locke Supporters

Contrary to what the Locke campaign texted out to supporters yesterday morning - "Today is the final day for early voting" - early voting continues through Friday, Oct. 30th. Today marks the beginning of 7 AM to 7 PM early voting everyday except for Sunday which is from 1 PM to 6 PM. A map of early voting locations can be found here. If you are a Locke supporter, feel free to follow their directions and stop voting immediately.

An updated google spreadsheet with early vote totals by location through Friday can be found at this link. Voting was up at every early voting location except Tomball, which stayed equal to Thursday.

What will this weekend bring? We've had over 23,000 people vote to date in person and by mail. I know that campaigns are working hard to get their vote out, and awareness of the election is certainly rising, so I would expect today to be a big day at the polls and Sunday not so much.

But, I'm alarmed at the campaigns and political groups who are waiting to get their mail out, their slate cards out or what have you. We had pundits and journalists proclaiming about a week ago that the campaigns had only just begun. The problem with that attitude is that here we are five days into it with 23,000+ votes in the bank (actually more than that because some mail ballots are already on their way back to the County Clerk). Even if that's just 10% of the final number of voters, that number starts to grow quickly over the weekend and pretty soon it's going to be very difficult to change the course of a really big ship that is far from shore.

Having said that, there is an opportunity to sway the undecided voters which is why we are seeing so much entertaining campaign activity. I don't know about you, but I wouldn't be surprised to find myself humming "Money, Money, Money, Monday . . . Money!" over the weekend while figuring out a scheme to make $640/hour.

Which brings us to the mayoral campaigns and the fun things in store this weekend. I'm hearing that Parker is going to wave a pincer at African American voters with a radio ad by State Representative Garnet Coleman starting today. From Kuff, we hear that Peter Brown is holding some sort of press conference with "numerous" supporters in Acres Home on Sunday. That might be a good idea, as the Acres Home early vote location has only contributed 2.65% of the vote total to date.

Giving some attention to the other pincer, there are rumors of a couple of Republican endorsements for Locke - one more reasonable than the other to put it mildly.

Stay tuned. And, go vote.