Methodology: Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers. The survey was conducted among 600 registered voters in Houston with previous vote participation in municipal runoff elections and who are likely to vote this December. The survey was conducted November 11-15, 2009. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.5 percentage points.Gene Locke released an internal poll to Bill King who sent out his own interpretations of it by email. Kuff blogged it here. Note that the Locke campaign did not release the results of the poll by press release, email or on his website. It also showed Parker in the lead, 43-39. All we know about the poll's methodology is from King's commentary - 4% MOE and a turnout scenario of 170,000 voters.
I woud take King's musings with a big giant salt pill. King made a lot of loud noises that he was going to run for mayor, and the rumor mill got cranked up very high that Locke kept him out by promising him a Metro board seat. That gets closer to being confirmed in this blog post by Miya Shay:
Similarly, almost-candidate Bill King is widely rumored to be eyeing the job as head of the Board at METRO. King has never denied the rumor the few times I've asked him about it.Remember, Gene Locke was the general counsel for Metro, and while Parker has been vociferous about cleaning house at Metro, Locke has been tepid about changes. Greg has blogged extensively about King's opinions on Metro (here's one example.) Let's just say Greg and Bill King disagree.
Bottom line: The polls agree - Annise is ahead. Voting by mail is going on right now. Early voting begins in 13 days on November 30th. There is a lot of work to be done in a short amount of time, for one of these candidates to go over 50%. Parker's poll memo has this statement: "only a substantially negative campaign from Locke can interrupt her momentum."
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