Monday, November 09, 2009

Gene Locke and the Latino Vote

We have plenty of evidence from the precinct level data, that Locke's brown-black coalition did not materialize, with only the black portion of the coalition showing up for him at the polls. I did a quick analysis of the total votes in some East End precincts:

Precinct
Brown
Morales
Parker
Locke
9
37
31
66
50
10
57
65
39
27
11
44
36
61
32
19
40
21
82
48
24
12
0
18
60
26
56
48
118
50
27
98
83
176
116
62
95
64
44
26
64
62
48
40
38
65
66
79
66
33
66
13
17
23
46
69
22
33
9
72
69
66
90
67
79
124
71
91
21
154
40
38
50
53
207
55
59
145
71
218
113
88
182
64
226
63
41
56
24
530
16
38
35
16
560
52
16
32
12
Totals
1134
926
1423
854
%
25.56%
20.87%
32.07%
19.25%

In this East End precinct set, Parker took the most votes with Locke taking the least - 13 points behind.

I found this posting called "Latinos for Locke" on Mary Benton's On the Beat blog curious, especially this:
"We haven't seen his opponent in our neighborhood," said one of the speakers.
Three things:
1. The restaurant, El Jardin, where "dozens of people packed into," (looks like 24 at best, to me) is in precinct 65 where the result was:

Morales: 31%
Parker: 26%
Brown: 26%
Locke: 13%

2. Also, I'm curious where folks think SEIU and HOPE (Annise Parker supporters) blockwalked and talked to Latino voters. I'll take a wild guess: East End, maybe?

3. I saw Annise Parker with my own eyes at a party in the East End held by Rick Noriega.

Marc Campos has more (where he shows that Parker probably got the greatest share of the Latino vote  city-wide and Locke the least), as does Stace here and here (where he makes a good point that Morales' Latino vote share may have been Republican Latinos, not Latinos voting according to last name.)

Next up: Locke's African American-Republican pincer strategy also didn't work. What's left for Locke to do in the runoff? Turn out the African American vote in even larger numbers and . . . and what?

That's the real question: And, what? Early voting begins three weeks from today on November 30th, so Locke is going to have to implement the "and what" strategy very quickly. Got any ideas of how Locke can win? Leave them in the comments!

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