Election Day Predictions - Mayoral Race

After seeing the breakdown of the early vote from Kyle Johnston (see below), campaign managers, consultants, bloggers and pundits have been making their predictions for how things will turn out on Election Day in the City of Houston mayoral race. I'll make mine. Why not? I already stuck my neck out six weeks ago and suggested Peter Brown might find himself in the runoff, when a Parker-Locke runoff seemed guaranteed.

Total votes cast: 200,000
I'm going to go lower than the 225,000 to 235,000 that most people are predicting using math models. Why? It's a Tuesday and there is still very low interest. I think plenty of people can't figure out who to vote for and will just choose to go on about their day on Tuesday. I also think the 57,915 early voters make up more than 25% of the final votes (going with the idea that people are more and more in the habit of voting early). The mayoral campaigns will be operating big GOTV programs on Tuesday, and if those work really well, we could see a number closer to 225,000. I'm usually pessimistic about turnout, and I nearly always under predict, so go with your math experts! But, bah humbug, I say 200,000.

Who gets in the runoff? 

Annise Parker and Peter Brown.

What's the vote share for each candidate? 

Too close to call, although, as you can see, I'm predicting Parker and Brown in the top two spots. Morales, Ulman, Ullrich, Cupp: together, I predict they will account for around 20% of the vote. Yes, there are three other candidates for mayor besides the four we always talk about. Morales gets the hardcore Republican vote, as well as some Hispanic votes, and the other three get some protest votes (the anybody but Locke, Brown or Parker voters.) This leaves 80% of the vote for the other three to split.

Parker ends up in the runoff because her base of twelve years turns out for her. If they didn't vote early, they will vote on Tuesday. Her experience, competency and leadership skills are reassuring to voters who are making up their minds at the last minute. She's managed to stay calm and above the fray, but has fought back quickly and hard when it was required. Texas Conservative Review gives her a grade of B, and Democrats, Independents and Republicans decide she is the fiscally responsible choice.

Pundits are saying Brown's support is soft, but he's polled big lately. He's sent out a ton of mail and dominated the airwaves. He's stayed on message. He's white; he's male; he's a reassuring choice. Voters have actually seen him in their communities over the past four years. They've put him in office twice before. All along, he's had more support than people have given him credit for.

I'm guessing African American voters make up 28% of the vote and Locke gets 60% of that. That's around 17% of the total vote. He picks up more due to his endorsements. The Texas Conservative Review grades him an F, which leaves Republicans looking for another choice. I guarantee Locke will have a good turnout program in place on Election Day. He's also spent a lot of time lately shoring up the African American vote - at churches, on the radio, etc.

I'm looking forward to seeing the actual votes flash up at harrisvotes.com on Tuesday night. Even if I'm disappointed with some of the results, I will be eager to find out what happened. Digging into the data informs the next election cycle. And, yes, these are the things that make a political junkie happy!

Here's how early voting went (City of Houston votes only) - hard data, not predictions!

Ethnicity:
Hispanic: 9%
African American: 27%
Asian: 4%
Jewish: 1%
Other: 58%

Partisanship by Primary Voting History:
Democratic: 57%
Republican: 31%
None: 12%

Sex:
Male: 45%
Female: 55%

General Voting (how many times voted in the past three city elections):
0 of 3: 1%
1 of 3: 7%
2 of 3: 15%
3 of 3: 77%

Age: 
18-24: 1%
25-34: 4%
35-49: 15%
50-64: 34%
65 and older: 46%

City Council District:
A: 11%
B: 10%
C: 12%
D: 17%
E: 13%
F: 8%
G: 17%
H: 7%
I: 5%

Here's the final ballot order and here is a list of candidates with links to most of their websites. Go to harrisvotes.com to find your polling location for Tuesday, November 3rd. The date for the runoff will probably be Saturday, December 5th 12th.

What are you thinking will happen on Tuesday? Does anything about the early vote data surprise you? Let us know in the comments!

UPDATE: Greg has a lot more, and he bravely goes where I did not go - predictions on percentages. He also has some thoughts on the Controller's race.