Morales is the only Republican in the race for Mayor. I thought he did a fairly good job in the last televised debate, even landing some well placed hits on Peter Brown. Sure, he comes off as a nutcase and not a serious candidates to just about anyone who is paying attention, and I am certainly not a fan. Here's an example of vintage Roy:
“I want to make sure that we light up downtown so when the space shuttle or the International Space Station is overhead, they won't see Las Vegas, they'll see Houston, Texas,” said Morales, who also is the only candidate to have invited the Disney Corp. to evaluate Houston as a possible site for a theme park.
But, let's take a look at Morales' past electoral failures - and one success:
In November 2005, Morales was one of a 3-person field for Houston City Council in At-Large 1. The total number of votes was 152,440. Peter Brown got 51% of the votes - 77,793. Roy Morales got 48,644 votes - 32%. Griff Griffin got 26,003 votes - 17%. Morales came very close to being in a runoff with Peter Brown. This was when Morales was involved in his Minutemen activity (video here). He wasn't a "serious" candidate in 2005, but he got nearly 49,000 votes. This should give people pause for thought.
In 2006, Morales ran unopposed for a Harris County Department of Education board seat. He got 41,231 votes, with a 70% undervote. Morales currently holds this board seat.
In May 2007, Morales was part of an eleven candidate field in the At-Large 3 Special Election. He got in the runoff with Melissa Noriega by capturing 19% of the vote in a low turnout election with 6349 votes. In the June runoff, Noriega won with 56% of the vote (13892) to Morales' 44% (11062). He challenged Noriega again for At-Large 3 in the November general election. This time he got 34% of the vote - 34,758 votes.
What does this data say to me? Morales is going to get his share. A certain percentage of Republican voters are going to pull the lever for the Republican, regardless of the viability or qualifications of the Republican candidate. Morales' right wing rhetoric appeals to some voters who just can't wait and vote for the guy who has zero chance of being Mayor of Houston, but says the magic words they want to hear on immigrants, as well as cutting taxes and lighting up Houston so the space shuttle can see us. Certainly, there are plenty of good government Republicans who vote in city elections and ignore Party labels, and vote for the best candidate - someone who is qualified and reasonable. We've seen both scenarios play out year after year, city election after city election.
How much will Morales get next Thursday? My prediction is somewhere between 10% and 20% and I'm leaning towards a mid-point, but north of 15% wouldn't surprise me. I would be concerned about a candidate whose plan to win - or plan to get in the runoff - sells Morales too short and is planning on him being in the single digits. What is your prediction? I'd love to hear it in the comments!
UPDATE: Mikey P left a comment reminding me that Morales' Hispanic surname gets an automatic vote from some Hispanic voters - whether they know anything about him or not. Forgot all about that factor!
UPDATE: Mikey P left a comment reminding me that Morales' Hispanic surname gets an automatic vote from some Hispanic voters - whether they know anything about him or not. Forgot all about that factor!
2 comments:
I've always heard that sometimes Hispanic people vote for whoever has a Hispanic name--but it wasn't until phonebanking in this election that I realized how true it was. More than one Hispanic, non-English speaking person that I talked to said that they always just vote for whoever has a Hispanic name. I had to explain to them that this Hispanic doesn't necessarily have their best interests at heart, and that they should reconsider that position...the few that I talked to believed me! But I still think that his name alone will pull quite a few Hispanic voters his way.
Mikey P! I totally forgot to make that point! You are exactly right. I'm going to update the post. I'm so overly familiar with Morales (UGH!) that I forgot the obvious.
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