City of Houston Votes in Fort Bend County to Date - and Historically

I've had Gene Locke supporters on Facebook arguing with me about how the City of Houston votes in Fort Bend County are their secret weapon for winning because the 23 City of Houston precincts in Fort Bend County are supposed to deliver a large African American vote and, of course, you know, obviously (or not so obviously) for him. The Fort Bend precincts are in City Council District D - Missouri City - represented by Wanda Adams. These same supporters think: a) African American voters were under polled in the Chronicle poll and b) Fort Bend voters were under polled in the Chronicle poll.

Here's what we know: only 238 people have voted in person in the Fort Bend City of Houston elections Monday - Sunday.

Unless something awakes them from their slumber, I wouldn't expect the Fort Bend voters to save anyone like they did Lee Brown in his 2001 runoff against Orlando Sanchez. Then again, I don't know. Perhaps in seasons past, very few Ft. Bend voters had voted this early and the big rush will come at the end of this week and on Election Day. I'm not going to take the time to analyze early vote turnout year by year, day by day in Fort Bend County. But, below is a historical look at how the Fort Bend votes have contributed to the final vote count in the Houston mayoral elections (vote totals and percentages are for the mayoral race only);

2001 General - 6 person race

Total City of Houston: 288,283 (Brown 43%, Sanchez 40%, Chris Bell 16%))

Fort Bend portion: 5755 (Lee Brown 90%)

2001 Runoff - Lee Brown vs. Orlando Sanchez

Total City of Houston: 321,030 (Brown 165,866 52%; Sanchez 155,164 48%)

Fort Bend portion: 7602 (Brown 6983 92%)

2003 General - 9 person race

Total City of Houston: 300,768 (White 38%, Sanchez 33%, Turner 29%)

Fort Bend portion: 6734 (Sylvester Turner 5011 74%)

2003 Runoff - Bill White vs. Orlando Sanchez

Total City of Houston: 218,448 (White 63%, Sanchez 37%)

Fort Bend portion: 3882 (White 3434 88%)

2005 General - 5 person race

Total City of Houston: 181,842 (White 91%)

Fort Bend portion: 3171 (White 89%)

2007 General - 3 person race

Total City of Houston: 117,431 (White 86%)

Fort Bend portion: 2293 (White 33%)

In a low turnout election, with the vote among Parker, Brown and Locke expected to be close, certainly 7000 plus or minus Fort Bend voters matter. I'd be curious to know of any polling which shows how big a percentage Locke is expected to get in Fort Bend - or even how much they are counting on. Historically, Fort Bend voters will vote for the black man in City of Houston elections in the 74% to 92% range (see Brown and Turner in the data above.) If Locke could get 90% of 7000 Fort Bend votes - 6300 votes - in the November general election, that certainly would be helpful to him.

Anyone else have an opinion? Please leave a comment!