Low Turnout: Advantage Parker?

I've been having lots of conversations with politicos about projected turnout for the Houston mayoral election on November 3rd, 8 weeks from yesterday, as well as following expert commentary on the internet. Nancy Sims' Mayoral Musings is a must read. Her August 25th comment of:

Yet, very few people are aware that we are electing a new Mayor this year. Even fewer are aware that Bill White is term-limited and I am constantly asked why people are running against him.

should have served as a warning to interested city government folks, a week before the August 31st KHOU poll came out that said about the same thing (that was the poll that showed Roy Morales could claim a statistical dead heat with Annise Parker, and that over half of likely City voters were undecided). Greg Wythe has logged in a couple of times on Greg's Opinion. Of particular interest is his analysis of percentage of the vote by Council District, both in November and in a December runoff:

The three strongest GOP seats (A, E, & G) will garner a collective 39-40% in both November and December. The two African-American districts will represent about 24-25% in both elections. The two Hispanic districts will represent about 15% in both elections. And the two others (C and F) clock in at about 20% both times.

Runoffs are expected in A, F and G this go round. Note that two of those districts are solidly Republican. Dr. Richard Murray recently wrote about turnout, where he notes that our last open mayoral race had 300,000 voters. He's expecting around 250,000 this time, for these reasons:

This year the major candidates, Annise Parker, Peter Brown, Gene Locke and Roy Morales are much less well known to voters 60 days before the polls open than was the case in 2003, and they have far less money to address that problem. That means potential voters will get much less information from paid advertising, especially on television, than was the case in 2003.

Nor will free media likely devote as much attention to the mayoral contest compared to six years ago. This fall much political coverage will focus on Washington D.C. where a great fight over health care, climate and environmental policy, and the role of the federal government in the economy is unfolding.

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Add to this the battle royale shaping up here in Texas between our senior U.S. senator, Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Governor Rick Perry for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, and even less media attention is likely to be focused on city politics over the next 60 days.

Kuff had a post about turnout on Monday.

I'm going to comment on a suggestion that I got from a City Hall insider last week - that if the turnout in the runoff is less than 280,000, Parker will win - and that she might even win outright on Nov. 3rd (note he is not a Parker supporter). I asked how he arrived at that number and that conclusion. His analysis of the election archives led him to believe that there are 120,000 voters who, over the six elections Parker has won City-wide, have shown they are prepared to rise up and vote for her again and again, both in a general elections and runoffs - and that surely there are 20,000 more who will side with her in November and December.

I have been hearing that Parker should have a starting advantage due to having won City-wide six times, but I've never seen for myself how many votes she got each time - nor thought about how those numbers might be a predictor for her total number of votes out of a 225,000-275,000 projected November turnout. The 275,000 is another number I've heard verbally from a respected number-cruncher friend.

So, I dove into the data and here's what I found in regards to Parker's raw votes every time she has won City-wide:

1997 At-Large 1:

Nov. Parker: 48,660; Dec. Parker: 144,417

1999 At-Large 1:

Nov. Parker: 112,470

2001 At-Large 1:

Nov. Parker 112,153

2003 Controller:

Nov. Parker 109,455; Dec. Parker 127,280

2005 Controller:

Nov. Parker 134,514

2007 Controller

Nov. Parker 88,478

I can see where my friend came up with the 120,000 rough number. My main questions are:

Are these really persistent Annise Parker voters - are they basically the same voters from election to election? And, does her campaign have the vast majority of these ID'd so they can prod them to rise up and go out and vote for her again, considering the low awareness of this election? Will all of them stay in Parker's camp, or will some of her persistent African American voters - or business oriented voters - vote with Locke?

This is just one slice of the puzzle, but I think an important one, considering the expected low turnout. Other things to consider: do Locke's public safety endorsements give him an advantage considering it's the #1 concern of City voters? Will women flock to Parker? What advantage does Brown gain being the first one up on TV and radio?

Early voting will begin to tell the tale and that begins in 40 days from today - Monday, October 19th.