Does Ballot Order Matter?

Does being at the top of the ballot give a candidate an advantage? We now have the ballot order for the City of Houston November elections (see the Chron's Bradley Olson report on that here). It would be nice to have some scientific data. A quick Google search yielded this:

A Low Information Theory of Ballot Position Effect

David Brockington

(1)	Department of Political Science, University of Twente, Postbus 217, 7500AE Enschede, The Netherlands

Abstract This article suggests a theory of ballot position effect based on the amount of information present in the electorate while accounting for several alternative hypotheses. The more information that voters have, all other factors held constant, the less a role ballot position will play. Additionally, the role of electoral institutions in mitigating or magnifying the effect is considered. The theories are tested with precinct-level data from city council elections held in Peoria, Illinois, from 1983 through 1999. Position effect is found to account for a bonus of 0.7% to 5.2% of the precinct-level vote share per position on the ballot. The level of aggregate information and the institutional setting explain a significant share of ballot position effect, even while examined in the presence of alternative explanations such as incumbency, endorsement, campaign expenditure, gender, and race.

This seems to say that in the absence of good information about the candidates, there is an advantage to being at the top of the ballot. (I'm not a political scientist - and don't have access to other research on this topic - so experts who want to log in on this, please do so.) Houstonians start early voting in 44 days. I don't think anyone can argue that there is a low awareness about the election right now. That will certainly change, but to what degree? Looking at the final ballot (and I've copied and pasted Bradley Olson's list and put it below), it really makes you wonder how uninformed voters would make a selection - by names they recognize? Then incumbents would be favored along with folks like Peter Brown, Annise Parker, C.O. Bradford, Herman Litt, Pam Holm, MJ Khan and Ron Green (whom have all served in elected capacity or, in the case of Bradford, as Police Chief). By names at the top of the ballot? Then, advantage Alex Wathen in A, Robert Kane in F, Richard Sedita in G, Don Cook in 1 and C.O. Bradford in 4. Note that Bradford has the double good fortune to have a recognizable name and be at the top of the ballot. City voters are usually informed voters. But, it's not going to be easy to get informed about all of these candidates. I've faced that many times over the years and just about ended up throwing up my hands - and a dart. There isn't any mystery that the candidates who have money for mail, TV and field (the appropriate combination of those for their race) are going to be able to build name ID and their message with the voters. I'm not drawing any conclusions, just asking questions. And, reiterating the point that others have made that the races are wide open. Houston City Elections - final ballot order:

Mayor

Peter Brown Amanda Ulman Luis Ralph Ullrich, Jr. Dan Cupp Roy Morales Annise Parker Gene Locke

City Controller

M.J. Khan Ronald Green Pam Holm

Council Member, District A

Alex Wathen Brenda Stardig Jeff Downing Lane Lewis Darrell Joe Rodriguez Bob Schoellkopf Amy Peck

Council Member, District B

Roger F. Bowden Jarvis Johnson

Council Member, District C

Anne Clutterbuck Randy Locke

Council Member, District D

Otis Jordan Larry McKinzie Anthony Brent Donovan Wanda Adams

Council Member, District E

Mike Sullivan Wayne Garrison

Council Member, District F

Robert Kane Mike Laster Al Hoang Peter Acquaro Khalid Khan Joe Chow Lewis Cook

Council Member, District G

Richard Sedita Dexter Handy Oliver Pennington George Foulard Mills Worsham

Council Member, District H

Ed Gonzalez

Council Member, District I

James Rodriguez

Council Member, At Large Position 1

Don Cook Herman Litt Lonnie Allsbrooks Stephen C. Costello Karen Derr Rick Rodriguez Kenneth Perkins J. Brad Batteau

Council Member, At Large Position 2

Sue Lovell Andrew C. Burks, Jr. Roslyn "Rozzy" Shorter M. Griff Griffin

Council Member, At Large Position 3

Melissa Noriega

Council Member, At Large Position 4

C. O. "Brad" Bradford Deborah Shafto Noel Freeman Curtis Garmon

Council Member, At Large Position 5

Carlos A. Obando Jack Christie Davetta Daniels Jolanda "Jo" Jones