Evan Smith to Texans: Paint the State Red

Evan Smith, editor-in-chief at Texas Monthly, writes in Newsweek that Texas isn't turning blue any time soon. While some think that the flipping of Colorado and Virgina from red to blue means that Texas could be next, Smith is not convinced. Some of his reasons: Hispanics: while we are headed to a Hispanic majority population, they don't all vote Democratic. Statewide R's typically get 30% of the Hispanic vote due to their social conservatism and being pro-military. Influx of young people: In other states, this might favor Dems, but "John McCain beat Obama 74 to 25 percent among white Texas college students, while Obama fought him to a draw elsewhere. In the suburbs, Obama won nationally, but McCain won in Texas 61-37." (ouch) Statewide Dem problem: No D has won statewide since 1994. Where is the strong D candidate for governor? There isn't one. Without a strong statewide D slate, it makes it hard for downballot D's. We are still red: Making progress (the 76-74 TX House for example) doesn't mean we aren't still red. Red is red. "McCain's percentage of the Texas vote in '08 lagged behind Bush's in '00 and '04—but he still topped 55 percent and beat Obama by 950,000 votes. NBC News noted that in '08 exit polls, 46 percent of Texans identified themselves as "conservative," compared with only 34 percent nationally. (In Virginia and North Carolina it was 37 and 33 percent, respectively.) Bush's approval rating in Texas was 41 percent versus 27 percent elsewhere" There's lots to chew on here and it's worth a read. Thanks to Felicity for pointing me to this article.