Rep. Aaron Pena Speaks Up On The Speaker's Race
Aaron Pena and I have a little running joke that he is a seer. This started when he accurately foretold the redistricting plan that was approved for Texas this year, resulting in a newly drawn district that Ciro Rodriguez won. Since then he has been 100% on predicting other events, so the "seer" moniker has stuck.
A lot of us have been wondering what he knows about the Speaker's race and where exactly he stands. He was one of the 17 Democrats that remained on Craddick's recently updated list of 83 (supposed) supporters. Via BOR, view the list compared to Craddick's original list of 109. Although I hate it, I can sort of understand why the Democratic committee chairs remain on the list. I think those chairs need to join their fellow Dems in an Anybody But Craddick vote, but I've already discussed that. As have others. Whatever. They owe their political life to Craddick, but they have to know that as with Ron Wilson and Al Edwards, a strong Democrat can be run against them in their 08 primaries who will vote with Democrats on education, health care, consumer issues, etc.
So, where does Aaron Pena stand? He's had three cryptic postings on his blog on the Speaker's race. In the latest post, he is pretty clear that he thinks the race is wrapped up and that on Jan. 9th, there will be clear support behind one of the candidates. From his post today:
My respect for each of these candidates and their supporters has effectively kept my postings to that of a discreet observer. That being said, it is my opinion based on information that I have been able to observe, that a front runner has emerged. It is my belief that the turning point occurred yesterday.
If things continue on their present course, and I presently see no reason for them to change, you can expect that the members of the 80th Legislature will have a clear front runner in the election for Speaker occurring on January 9th. For now, I will exercise my discretion one final time and allow you to surmise who that front runner may be.
When he says the turning point occurred yesterday, that says to me that he thinks the Craddick loyalists' efforts at phone calling and letter writing either went very, very well or that The Little Napolean's supporters have fallen off. If it's not Craddick, my guess is that McCall has the votes to win. He's got the Democratic caucus in his corner, Talton and others. I've wondered all along, if at the very end, Pitts and McCall will combine their pledges for one of them to win. Again, I think that person would be McCall.
Back to Rep. Pena. Why has his name been on Craddick's list all along? It's made a bunch of Democratic activists unhappy, that is for sure. The Austin insiders I've talked to have been clear that another session with Craddick as speaker means we have another session with little good coming out of it. A lot of people smarter about this than me think this is our one best chance for new House leadership, which will enable the members to get things done and vote the interests of their districts.
So, Rep. Pena, where do you stand? On the side of change and a better situation for the people of Texas or with the man from Midland? Is your name on Craddick's list as a bluff? A lot of people have stuck their necks out on this one and whatever happens on the 9th, it could be "off with their heads" after the vote and all the way through the end of May. I'm sure the seer is well aware of that.
Note: As I was writing this post, I got word that House Pensions and Investments Committee Chair Craig Eiland (D-Galveston) met with both Pitts and McCall today and is confident that Craddick does not have the votes to win. He believes the next Speaker of the House will be Brian McCall. Read Eiland's press release at Burnt Orange Report.































